Terminal, Live CABTA Data · CABTA Coverage

◆ Probability · PolymarketUpdated 5m ago

Qualifies for ballot

88.5¢

YES 88.5¢NO 11.5¢

Vol $130.6K

Passes in November

37.5¢

YES 37.5¢NO 62.5¢

Vol $3.3M

Source: Polymarket Gamma API. Refreshes every 15 minutes via ISR.

◆ Donor leaderboard · Cal-AccessDAILY

Opposition

$81.5M

Proponents

$3.5M

▼Sergey Brin$58M
▼Chris Larsen$10.5M
▲SEIU-UHW$3.5M
▼Eric Schmidt$3M
▼Peter Thiel$3M
▼Patrick Collison$2M
▼John Doerr$2M
▼Michael Moritz$2M

◆ Polling historyEVENT-DRIVEN

Date	Pollster	Y	N	U
Dec 15, 2025	Early public poll	63	28	9
Jan 12, 2026	Mellman Group (Pre)	48	38	14
Jan 12, 2026	Mellman Group (Post)	46	44	10

◆ Signatures · CA SOSSTATIC

177%

of qualification threshold filed

Filed April 27, 2026. Verification deadline June 25, 2026. Random sample, then full count if the sample falls in the 95-110 percent band.

◆ Conversation · X & RedditCURATED · 4 curated · 0 reddit

◆ Featured · X

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

·Follow

On page twenty-six of “The Billionaire Tax” proposal in California, it explains how the state legislature can convert from a Billionaire Tax to an Everyone Tax without voter approval. They can also adjust the tax to be a yearly tax, not just one time…again, without your Show more

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax. The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure. Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently

8:22 PM · Apr 25, 2026

·Follow

The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax. The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure. Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently Show more

6:57 PM · Apr 25, 2026

·Follow

It’s not a Billionaire Tax It’s an unrealized gains tax, a property tax, a forced liquidation tax, an asset inventory exercise, a privacy invasion, an exit incentive — take your pick But using the language of your opponent is the first step to losing

Zach Tratar

@zachtratar

People are really underestimating the damage this "Billionaires Tax" will do to California. CA has a spending problem, not a tax revenue problem. But if its politicians keep twisting the knife, they will have both problems.

2:32 AM · Apr 28, 2026

·Follow

People are really underestimating the damage this "Billionaires Tax" will do to California. CA has a spending problem, not a tax revenue problem. But if its politicians keep twisting the knife, they will have both problems.

9:24 PM · Apr 27, 2026

1.4K

Reply

Read 75 replies

Tweets fetched server-side via the Twitter syndication endpoint (no API key). To enable live keyword search, set X_BEARER_TOKEN in Vercel env (X API Basic tier, $100/mo). To add curated tweets, append a tweet ID to data/tweets.json.

◆ Reddit · live JSON · 30m cache

Reddit returned no recent threads (or the request was rate- limited). Refreshes every 30 minutes.

Queries: "billionaire tax" California, "Initiative 25-0024", "CABTA", "wealth tax" California 2026. Past 30 days, deduplicated, sorted newest first.

◆ Timeline

Oct 22, 2025Initiative filed with the Attorney General
Dec 26, 2025AG Bonta issues official title and summary
Jan 14, 2026Building a Better California incorporates as opposition committee
Feb 18, 2026Campaign kickoff in Los Angeles
Mar 2, 202625% signature milestone reported
Apr 27, 2026Signatures filed at 177% of threshold
Jun 2, 2026California primary election
Jun 25, 2026Signature verification deadline
Aug 15, 2026Ad blitz expected to begin
Nov 3, 2026General election, Election Day

◆ News feed · curated

California billionaire tax secures enough signatures to make ballotCBS News · Apr 27, 2026
Sergey Brin pours $58M into California opposition committeeFortune · Apr 26, 2026
Silicon Valley names join the anti-CABTA coalitionThe San Francisco Standard · Mar 9, 2026
Tech and agriculture billionaires line up against California wealth taxThe New York Times · Jan 28, 2026
Google Guys Say Bye to CaliforniaThe New York Times · Jan 9, 2026

◆ Data sources

↳ AG ballot text · 25-0024 A1

Verbatim PDF of the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act.

↳ CA Cal-Access

Daily scrape of committee filings via Playwright.

↳ Polymarket Gamma API

Public endpoint, 15-minute ISR.

↳ LAO

California Legislative Analyst's Office fiscal estimates.